Sigh, despite word that another street protest took place today, the news from Iran has become opaque. The theocracy seems to have succeeded in suppressing the revolt, at least for now. The question is, what is happening behind the scenes within the theocracy? That's where things become opaque. Is there a power struggle within the theocracy between reactionary and somewhat more liberal mullahs as some events seem to indicate? If so, how will that play out?
Iran is only slightly less isolated than North Korea, and as a result no one really knows. The one thing that seems clear is that the horse is out of the barn, and it's too late to close the door. Whatever the outcome, I believe that the theocracy will have to find a way to deal with the reformers. The theocracy has the absolute power granted them by the Iranian constitution. The reformers have the power of the protesters who came out by the hundreds of thousands and are still there, despite the suppression. And so the question again becomes, how will this play out?
Will the theocracy manage to co-opt the reformers? Will the reformers gain enough support within the theocracy to force a new election and perhaps even oust Ayatollah Khameini? There are way more questions than answers. That is he nature of opacity.
For now, good night.
9 months ago